The Aviation industry across the globe is in an unlock phase. However there is a lot of uncertainty around air travel. Many passengers are still sceptical about taking a long-haul flight. But slowly and steadily the industry is set to motion. The wheels of recovery have started rolling. How will the MRO industry recover from this? With the increased cargo carriers for medical and essential supplies, there’s a spurt in P2F conversions in the market. Do we see a new emerging market from this, all this and many other questions were answered by Chuck Adams, Managing Partner of the Coeptis Consulting Group in a candid conversation with Swati.k
Q – With halting of International flights, naturally the MRO services also suffered a setback during the lockdown phase. However, with the opening of International borders and flights slowly starting to resume, how do you predict the comeback of operations for MROs?
A– My thoughts and predictions are in line with many others, including many much wiser than me. MROs perform services on aircraft and its relevant assets. Since operators, both domestic and international, scaled back utilization, MRO has and is still taking a major hit in demand, which will likely drag out for some time. As we have been seeing, traffic is slowly picking back up, but it will likely take a few years. I would imagine narrowbody to come back first, followed by international passenger travel via widebody later as countries hopefully begin lifting international travel restrictions again.
Q – Going ahead, it is said that airlines will further delay the maintenance schedules. Your views
A – Yes, airlines will delay maintenance, but it also depends on other factors, such as aircraft utilization, the type of aircraft, and traffic demand. On one hand, airlines will hold on to as much cash as possible, and if they are not using assets, maintenance naturally will get pushed back. However, there are other negatives of letting aircraft sit. An example, if they do not generate revenue, excluding load factor loss potential, it does not help with covering fixed expenses such as leases which are committed no matter what (i.e. Hell or High-Water clause in leases). Additionally, airframes and power plants have certain requirements and procedures for long-term storage. Instead of bearing the cost of performing these procedures, it is not unheard of for operators to just switching aircraft to keep the assets flying so that long-term storage procedures do not need to be performed, as they can be costly. It is a trade-off in this uncertain market.
Q – The COVID-19 pandemic brought about a sudden spurt in the cargo carriers for essential goods and commodities, with the CF6 engine proving to be the power plant of choice for freighters. The oldest model of CF6 is still in service, after 48 years. Your views
A – No surprises there; freighters have been using the CF6 and related engine models for years. With part availability and lower fuel costs, I think the CF6 is here to stay for some time, particularly in the freighter space, but like all things that can change.
Q – Today, the entire aviation industry is working on reducing carbon footprints and achieving a cleaner environmentally friendly aviation by 2050. Can you tell us the technology behind a fuel-efficient engine? Is it possible to make a zero-pollution engine (non-electric) in future?
A – Many engine OEMs have been pushing the envelope for more fuel efficient, less emissive engines for a while now. What has been interesting is how the engine OEMs set out to achieve this goal. For example, GE Aviation has invested heavily in materials R&D, including CMCs, so that compression ratios in the core can be pushed higher to create more thermally efficient, thus more fuel efficient, engines. On the other hand, Pratt & Whitney pursued other means, such as using a geared turbofan for greater propulsive efficiency without the need to drive core temperatures higher. While these technologies, combined with better fuel burn in combustors and alternative fuels, can help reduce emissions and pollution, a zero-pollution, non-electric engine will likely not ever be achievable. Electric engines provide emissions and pollution relief, but even those have a way to go technology-wise.
Q – The British Airways recently announced the retirement of their entire fleet of B-747. Australia’s Qantas has also retired the last remaining 747s. With shrinking operations, more operators are opting for smaller aircraft. How will this affect the engine aftermarket?
A – This will be an evolving situation, depending on recovery rates from COVID. Many operators are retiring the older, larger aircraft, which will increase engine and parts availability in that sector. However, there are major rollbacks in the smaller narrow body market as well. I am aware that many independent MROs and brokers are trying to find good deals on mid-life to mature engines and parts, such as the CFM56-3 and even some -5 and -7. While many operators, especially airlines, will likely focus on ramping back up with newer aircraft/engines due to operating costs and efficiencies, there will be large populations of Used Serviceable Material available for mid-life and “green-time” engines that may make those engines attractive to other operators; only time will tell.
Q – Was engineering always our first choice of career? What advice will you give to the younger generation planning to pursue aircraft maintenance as their career choice?
A – Engineering is an area that I have always been interested in, especially in the aviation sector. My experience has been at an engine OEM in both the new-make and MRO side, which I have found gives a very comprehensive view compared to just working at an independent MRO. It gives you line-of-sight on maintenance issues across the whole fleet worldwide with the lens of the OEM, which has been very fascinating and valuable at the same time. Over the past couple years, I have been looking to expand into business focused roles, including consulting; I have many interests, what can I say?
For the up-and-coming generation, if you are considering a career in aviation MRO, think about what function you want to pursue. On the Engineering & Maintenance side, a few routes can be taken. If you like to go hands-on, and want to become a trained service professional, pursuing technician route, such as the FAA A&P license, is a great career choice, especially with the major shortage of trade labour. On the other hand, if you want to perform development activities, such as R&D, innovation, and drive new technologies, a university degree in engineering is the way to go. It just depends on where you want to go.
Q – Today’s MRO industry is infused with latest technology like predictive maintenance, additive manufacturing, artificial intelligence etc. Your take.
A – This is an area that has piqued my interest these past few years, especially in the aviation MRO digital transformation and solutions space. As a recovering programmer (Python, C#, SQL, etc.), I can understand the great value that technologies such as block chain, artificial intelligence, and the like can bring to aviation MRO. The major challenge is not only developing solutions but bringing it all together to provide value as a system in the aviation MRO chain. The old saying is “Garbage In, Garbage Out;” a technology like artificial intelligence is revolutionary, but if your digital infrastructure & systems are not configured correctly, or at least not properly understood, utilizing any solution like artificial intelligence will only provide meagre returns. Furthermore, all stakeholders need to be involved, not just data scientists and IT personnel; if you do not know what variables and factors to examine, you will not produce meaningful or the needed results. Even OEMs can still struggle with applying new solutions as they are learning new, important factors and variables affecting the operation of their designs and parts, and this is just compounded further for other independent MRO organizations.
Q – I am sure you must have had your fair share of virtual meetings and Webinars in the lockdown phase. Do you think virtual meetings will replace the face-to-face meetings? Has it changed people’s preference of doing business?
A – Oddly enough, I have been working remotely from my home in Idaho for over three and a half years already, so virtual meetings and webinars are my normal routine. However, I do not think virtual meetings will replace face-to-face meetings completely, especially in hands-on industries like aviation MRO. In my career experience, there is so much value of going to the workspace, “genba,” where the process is performed, and interacting directly with the wonderful folks making the value magic happen. While I think it will help people realize the wonderful benefits of working from home and drive folks away from the office a little more, there should always be some time taken for face-to-face meetings; you can’t replace that connection with a computer screen. I have found through experience that working remotely is feasible, but pre-COVID I always made home visits to the office at least three to four times per year.
