The market is expected to grow at a 3.8% CAGR as the global aircraft fleet expands, driving demand for maintenance, digital solutions, technical support, and more than 2.44 million additional aviation professionals.
Airbus expects the global aviation services market to more than double in value by 2045, reaching over US$420 billion as airlines expand their fleets and demand increases for maintenance, operational support, digital connectivity and workforce development.
According to the latest edition of Airbus’ Global Services Forecast (GSF), the aviation services market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8% over the next two decades. The expansion will be supported by a growing global aircraft fleet, which Airbus estimates will reach 45,550 aircraft by 2045. Over the same period, annual passenger numbers are expected to double to 10 billion.
The forecast highlights the increasing importance of the services ecosystem in supporting aircraft availability, operational reliability and the long-term performance of commercial aviation fleets. As the industry accommodates more aircraft and passengers, airlines will require greater maintenance capacity, timely access to materials and engineering support, as well as digital solutions that improve operational efficiency.
Maintenance and operational support to drive market growth
Off-wing maintenance is expected to remain the largest segment of the aviation services market, reaching an estimated US$217 billion by 2045, with a CAGR of 3.7%. Airbus attributes the anticipated growth to an increasing number of engine and component shop visits as the global fleet expands and aircraft age. Material supply and repair capabilities will also play an important role in meeting demand for replacement parts and technical support.
Maintenance operations support, a newly introduced category in the forecast, is projected to reach US$104 billion by 2045, growing at a CAGR of 4.3%. The segment encompasses services such as inventory provision, with an emphasis on timely and quality-compliant supply, alongside engineering support to maintain continued airworthiness and aircraft reliability.
The addition of this category reflects the importance of the activities that support maintenance execution beyond the physical repair or overhaul of aircraft and components. Effective inventory management, engineering expertise and the availability of materials are essential to keeping aircraft serviceable and supporting airline operations.
On-wing maintenance is forecast to reach US$36 billion by 2045, representing a CAGR of 2.8%. The segment covers a range of maintenance activities, from light inspections to heavy checks, and is expected to expand broadly in line with the growth of the global fleet.
Together, these segments underline the continued importance of maintenance capacity, component support and engineering services as airlines prepare to accommodate a larger and increasingly demanding aircraft population.
Digital and connectivity services emerge as the fastest-growing segment
Digital and connectivity services are projected to be the fastest-growing category in Airbus’ forecast, with the market expected to triple over the next 20 years and reach US$27 billion by 2045. The segment is forecast to record a CAGR of 5.3%.
Digital solutions and connectivity are becoming increasingly important across the aviation services ecosystem. These technologies can support airlines in improving operational efficiency, managing disruptions such as delays and cancellations, strengthening maintenance agility and providing real-time connectivity to meet passenger expectations.
For maintenance organisations and airline engineering teams, the wider adoption of digital solutions is expected to remain an important part of efforts to improve operational processes and support aircraft availability. Connectivity also plays a role in enabling more responsive operations and a smoother passenger journey.
Airbus’ forecast also identifies modifications and upgrades as a continuing area of demand. This segment is expected to reach US$21 billion by 2045, growing at a CAGR of 2.6%. Activities include cabin retrofits and the integration of modern technologies into existing aircraft, allowing operators to upgrade their fleets as passenger expectations and operational requirements evolve.
The training market is forecast to reach US$17 billion by 2045, representing a CAGR of 3.1%. Demand will be influenced by the need to recruit and develop the workforce required to support a larger global fleet and an expanding aviation services industry.
Aviation industry faces significant workforce requirements
The projected expansion of the aviation services market will require a substantial increase in skilled personnel. Airbus estimates that the industry will need an additional 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million cabin crew members over the next 20 years.
The combined requirement exceeds 2.44 million additional aviation professionals, highlighting the scale of the workforce challenge facing airlines, maintenance organisations and other industry stakeholders.
For the MRO sector, the demand for additional maintenance technicians will place greater emphasis on technical training, workforce development and the availability of appropriately skilled personnel. As the fleet grows, the industry will need to ensure that maintenance capabilities and the supporting workforce develop in step with operational requirements.
Training is therefore a key component of the broader services outlook, alongside investment in maintenance infrastructure, materials support, engineering capabilities and digital technologies.
Asia projected to record the fastest services market growth
Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), North America and China are expected to remain the largest aviation services markets in terms of total demand over the next two decades. However, Airbus projects that Asia, including Asia-Pacific, China and South Asia, will be the fastest-growing region.
The outlook points to the increasing importance of the region in the global aviation services landscape. As demand for air travel and aircraft operations expands, the need for maintenance, engineering support, technical training and digital services will remain central to the development of aviation capabilities.
For the MRO industry, the projected regional growth reinforces the importance of developing the infrastructure, skills and support systems required to sustain expanding fleets and meet the needs of airline customers.
Airbus’ Global Services Forecast focuses on passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighters with a payload capacity exceeding 10 tonnes. The forecast is aircraft-agnostic, assessing the broader services market rather than limiting its scope to Airbus-manufactured aircraft.
Commenting on the forecast, Cristina Aguilar Grieder, SVP Customer Services Commercial Aircraft at Airbus, said, “As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready. Airbus is expanding its role as an integral services partner to support our customers across the entire aircraft lifecycle. By integrating predictive operations, fleet modernisation, and advanced digital solutions, we are helping airlines ensure fleet availability, reliability, safety, and long-term operational excellence.”
The forecast underscores the scale of the opportunity across the aviation services market as the global fleet and passenger traffic expand. Maintenance and material support are expected to account for a significant share of demand, while digital and connectivity services are projected to grow at a faster rate.
At the same time, the requirement for millions of additional aviation professionals highlights the need for the industry to address workforce development alongside investments in technology and maintenance capabilities.
As airlines prepare for a larger global fleet by 2045, the ability to combine maintenance expertise, reliable material supply, digital capabilities, and a skilled workforce will remain central to supporting aircraft availability and operational performance.
